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Posted: 22/07/19

Post FED

POST FED AND BOE

The FED

Has put some movement back in to the FX markets. IT seems that although the US are now looking to normalize rates the markets were expecting a full 4 hikes but maybe be settling for a more realistic 3. After Yellen saying last years we would get 3 and we only got 1, this is a fair compromise I feel.

The USD took a hit and has made no attempt to retrace to the 50% of the move again t the JPY (113.744) this can only mean the there us more room on the down side short term. 112/519 seems a logical point of attraction.

The GBP

GBP votes were in an it seems that there was some dissent in the ranks. I'm not surprised as the whole rates idea in the UK has turned into an utter joke. From Carney telling us he was the only one with a Brexit plan - to cut rates? Ingenuous.Also telling us we are not in a consumer driven recovery, as personal debt spirals and people pay off their mortgages with credit cards while releasing equity? It's all just 'free money'. Of course rates have to go up and historically we have followed the US and they have tipped their hand. Free money is coming to an and... an you have to start paying it back.

With this in mind there has been some strength hitting the GBP, rising above a key level at 1.23457. As we come closer to triggering article 50 it seems the only person with a plan that has seen it through is May. This I feel is more of a push for global player to back the once great empire and currency of old, and start to attack the clearly divided and vulnerable EU & EUR.

Article to read:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

today36.JPG#asset:110

15/03/17

What to expect before Article 50 being triggered